Navigating Geopolitical Turbulence: Lessons from Resilient Small Businesses

Global uncertainty has become the new norm. From trade wars and sanctions to regional conflicts and pandemics, small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) are increasingly forced to adapt to geopolitical turbulence. Unlike large multinationals with extensive advisors and operational support, small businesses often navigate the dual challenge of limited resources and heightened vulnerability. Yet, history has shown that smaller organizations often possess an advantage in agility, creativity, and resilience.

This article explores how small businesses across industries have navigated geopolitical shocks, drawing out insights that HR and business leaders can consider to help strengthen their own organizations.

The growing pressure of geopolitical risks

For small business, geopolitical disruptions are no longer distant headlines—they’re direct threats to supply chains, workforce stability, and customer relationships. Consider:

• Global supply chain disruptions: The war in Ukraine disrupted access to grain, metals, and energy, impacting not only European businesses but U.S.-based SMBs dependent on imported materials.
• Shifting trade policies: The U.S.–China trade tensions created tariff spikes and forced SMB importers to quickly find alternative sourcing.
• Talent and mobility restrictions: Immigration policy changes have restricted access to global talent, forcing employers to rethink hiring strategies.

These crises don’t just challenge financial strategy—they test leadership, organizational culture, and HR systems. How small businesses respond often determines whether they thrive or merely survive.

Case Study 1: Restructuring supply chains in real time

Example: A midwestern manufacturer diversifying suppliers
 When tariffs on Chinese imports increased in 2019, a mid-sized manufacturing firm in Ohio suddenly faced 25% cost increases on critical components. With limited cash reserves, leadership could not absorb the expense without jeopardizing payroll. Instead of restructuring, the company’s HR and operations teams collaborated to restructure their supply chain.

• Action Taken: They identified smaller domestic suppliers, some within a 200-mile radius, even though unit prices were slightly higher.
• HR Implication: The shift created stronger ties with local businesses and reduced uncertainty for employees who feared restructuring. Workers were even retrained to work with new materials.
• Outcome: Within a year, the company reduced its reliance on imports by 60%, stabilized margins, and boosted employee morale by emphasizing shared resilience.

HR Takeaway: Crises can present opportunities to support long-term stability. By engaging employees in retraining programs and being transparent about strategic changes, small businesses can build loyalty and adaptability.

Case Study 2: Leveraging local strategic relationships to help offset global risk

Example: A Brooklyn-based coffee boaster
During the pandemic, a Brooklyn coffee roaster that relied on imported beans faced delays at ports and soaring shipping costs. Instead of closing its cafés or restructuring, leadership turned inward.

• Action Taken: They formed strategic relationships with local bakeries and dairy farms to co-brand offerings, reducing dependence on delayed imports.
• HR Implication: Employees—baristas, delivery drivers, and marketing staff—were cross-trained to support new product lines and local events.
• Outcome: While bean shipments normalized months later, the new relationships generated an additional 20% in revenue and strengthened the company’s community reputation.

HR Takeaway: Local strategic relationships are not just operational strategies; they can be cultural reinforcements. When employees see their work connected to local resilience, engagement rises and turnover risk can decrease.

Case Study 3: Digital pivot amid political sanctions

Example: A European tech startup facing sanction restrictions
A SaaS company serving small clients in Eastern Europe suddenly lost access to payment systems after international sanctions restricted transactions with certain countries.

• Action Taken: The company rapidly built a digital sales strategy targeting Western Europe and North America. HR led a redeployment initiative where sales and customer support teams were retrained for new markets.
• HR Implication: Instead of restructuring, leadership invested in employee learning and development, including language training and new sales tools.
• Outcome: Within six months, the company regained 80% of its lost revenue while enhancing its workforce’s skills and adaptability.

HR Takeaway: Reskilling is not just a buzzword. In moments of geopolitical disruption, retraining employees can be more cost-effective than restructuring and rehiring.

Key insights from resilient small businesses

1. Agility comes from culture, not just strategy

A strategic pivot is only possible when employees trust leadership. Companies that built cultures of open communication and mutual support adapted faster. HR leaders should:

• Encourage two-way communication during crises.
• Consider share information transparently, including financial realities.
• Celebrate small wins to reinforce resilience.

2. Cross-training protects against talent gaps

When immigration restrictions or talent shortages hit, small businesses with cross-trained employees were less disrupted. Examples included:

• Cross-training front-of-house staff in operations at a restaurant during staff shortages.
• Training finance staff in other business operations, such as procurement.

HR Insight: Build job-rotation programs in stable times so employees are ready to step into new roles during crises.

3. Local strategic relationship can help reduce exposure to global shocks

By working with nearby suppliers, farms, or service providers, small businesses can help reduce reliance on volatile global networks.

• HR’s role: Nurture these relationships by involving employees in community events or local supplier relationships.

4. Reskilling is more cost-efficient than rehiring

Investing in training during crises can help optimize both money and morale. Employees who grow with the business are less likely to leave when conditions improve.

5. Wellness and stability must remain priorities

During turbulent times, anxiety levels rise. SMBs that provided wellness programs, flexible work arrangements, or even small stipends for commuting or childcare saw stronger employee retention.

HR best practices for geopolitical risk management

Drawing from these examples, here are key information for small business HR leaders to consider:

1. Scenario planning workshops
1. Run tabletop exercises with employees to plan for supply chain delays, sanctions, or mobility restrictions.
2. Empower teams to brainstorm their own contingency roles.
2. Build regional workforce hubs
1. If possible, diversify workforce locations to reduce reliance on one location.
2. Encourage flexible remote work structures to adapt to disruptions.
3. Codify knowledge sharing
1. Document processes to help employees step into roles if peers are unavailable.
2. Create mentorship pairs across teams.
4. Access to employee assistance programs (EAPs)
1. Offer mental health and financial planning resources during uncertain times.
2. Even small investments can help increase resilience.
5. Align employer brand with resilience
1. Highlight adaptability in recruitment marketing.
2. Emphasize that employees join not just a company but for the culture.

Looking ahead: resilience as a competitive advantage

Geopolitical turbulence isn’t going away. From climate-related migration to emerging trade conflicts, small businesses will continue to face disruptions that are global in scope but local in impact. Yet, as the case studies show, SMBs have a unique advantage: their ability to move quickly, mobilize employees, and foster community relationships.

Resilient small businesses do more than weather crises—they can adapt, recover and continue thrive stronger with their culture, their HR practices, and their customer relationships.

For leaders, the question isn’t whether the next disruption will come, but whether their people and processes will be ready when it does.

Interested in Learning More About Uncertainty in the Workplace and How to Manage It?

Check out www.trinet.com/navigating-uncertainty where we regularly post article on how to address business HR concerns and turn question marks into thoughtful steps.